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My favorite part of every NFL draft is the overreaction about rookie quarterbacks. This year in particular, Quarterbacks J.J. McCarthy (out of Michigan) and Caleb Williams (out of USC) are popular with negative critics. Through only three days of Organized Team Activities (OTAs), these two are already getting the infamous “Bust” label thrown at them. Calling someone a bust without seeing them play a single NFL game is a little premature. It is such an adjustment to play the quarterback position in the NFL, and people expect these guys to come in and be perfect. I will tell you why these rookie Quarterbacks will be just fine in the NFL.
Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears)
The appropriate start to this is by saying, yes, Caleb Williams is indeed good at football. It seems like people have forgotten what Williams did as a sophomore at USC. When Williams won the Heisman trophy in 2022 he passed for 4,075 yards (8th highest for a Heisman winner) and along with 47 total touchdowns (ninth most for a Heisman winner). That just simply reminds you of what Williams is capable of when he plays at his ceiling. Now, all the hate seemed to flood in during last season, especially during the build-up to the draft.
While Williams certainly had a drop-off year compared to his Heisman season, I'm just not seeing where it was a bad season statistically. Williams had 112 fewer pass attempts and because of that, he passed for 900 fewer yards and 12 fewer touchdowns. However, those are the big hits that everyone seems to be noticing but no one seems to be digging a little deeper. Compared to his Heisman season in 2022: Williams had a better completion percentage, better yards-per-attempt, and a much better passer efficiency rating. I understand that people love to focus on wins and touchdowns, but that doesn’t all fall on Caleb.
Williams got drafted at the number one spot to the Chicago Bears, and it’s a good situation. The Bears have provided Williams with three elite wideout threats. They have returned D.J. Moore, brought in Keenan Allen from the Chargers, and drafted Rome Odunze (out of Washington) just eight picks after Willaims. By no means am I saying Williams is going to have a C.J. Stroud-type rookie season, however, I’m fairly confident that Williams will be a cornerstone for the Bears within the next three years.
J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings)
While I can understand some being a little gun-shy with J.J. McCarthy, the people guaranteeing that he’ll be a bust is puzzling. It only took two days of OTAs for people to give up on McCarthy. Most of McCarthy’s haters are probably upset that Michigan (a school that is already hated) went 15-0 and won the national championship. Many mention that McCarthy’s flaws were hidden behind the dominant run game of Michigan. While I will not disagree with that, I question how deeply these people watched the Michigan season.
In my opinion, many of these haters are box score watchers. After the game, they go and look at the very unassuming numbers vs Penn State (for example) and chalk it up as a bad game for McCarthy. McCarthy was in a system that he executed to perfection, with winning being the only thing on his mind. Put McCarthy on a Pac-12 team and let him throw the ball 40 times, his numbers would be up to par with Michael Penix Jr. and Caleb Williams.
What sells me on McCarthy is when he was needed to make a big play or go win a game, he did. Let’s go back to some examples throughout McCarthy’s career at Michigan. 2022 vs Ohio State is my first flashback. During this game OSU made it known they were selling out to stop the run and making McCarthy beat them. OSU legit ran cover zero (no safety help) and stacked the box to force Michigan to let McCarthy throw. Did J.J. buckle under pressure? No. He threw for 263 yards, three passing touchdowns, and added another touchdown on the ground. Let’s talk about an even bigger game on a bigger stage, The Rose Bowl vs Alabama (does it get any bigger?).
Deep in the fourth quarter, Michigan had little to no life as Alabama just scored to go up by seven. They had all of the momentum. With three minutes left and the season on the line, McCarthy showed up when the lights were bright. He did the following in order: completed a pass on 4th down to keep them alive, ran for 15 yards and a first down, completed a 35-yard pass to set up Michigan inside the 10-yard line, and threw the game-tying passing touchdown. Many remember that game solely based on Blake Corum's game-winning touchdown in overtime and Michigan’s defensive stop. However, McCarthy once again showed up and passed for 221 yards and three touchdowns.
The guy is a flat-out winner and that’s exactly what the Minnesota Vikings saw. Now you’re giving McCarthy a brilliant offensive-minded head coach in Kevin O'Connell and (no debate) the best wide receiver in the league in Justin Jefferson. The point of this is not to say these guys will for sure be Hall of Famers, but you must see how McCarthy’s talent mixed with the Vikings system has a solid chance of working out.
